Will Nolan's Dunkirk Be a Hit or Miss at the Box Office?

While it underperformed by quite a bit last weekend, by mostbox office standards, 20th Century Fox’sWar For the Planet Of the Apesstill managed to come out on top, taking in $56.2 million, which was more on par with the franchise openerRise of the Planet of the Apes($54.8 million) in 2011, than its predecessorDawn of the Planet of the Apes($72.6 million) in 2014. This weekend, those damn dirty apes go up against three vastly different newcomers, Warner Bros.' World War II epicDunkirk, Universal’s R-rated comedyGirls Tripand STX Entertainment’s sci-fi thrillerValerian and the City of a Thousand Planets. WhileGirls TripandValerianare expected to open with solid numbers, Christopher Nolan’sDunkirkshould have no trouble coming out on top with a predicted $60.3 million.

Box Office Mojoreports that theDunkirk, from heralded director Christopher Nolan, will open in approximately 3,600 theaters, followed by director Luc Besson’sValerianin 3,400 theaters and director Malcolm D. Lee’s comedyGirls Tripopening in roughly 2,500 theaters. All three newcomers are critically-acclaimed, though, with theWWII dramaearning an impressive 95% Rotten Tomatoes score, whileValerianhas posted a 70% rating andGirls Triphas an 88% rating going into its opening weekend. IfDunkirkhits this projection, it certainly wouldn’t be a record debut forChristopher Nolan, but it would be an improvement over his last outing.

BarringChristopher Nolantaking on another epic tentpole franchise like hisDark Knighttrilogy, it will likely be difficult for the director to top his opening weekend record, $160.8 million, set byThe Dark Knight Risesin 2012. That tally was almost as much as the domestic total for his last film, the 2014 mind-benderInterstellar, which opened with $47.5 million en route to a domestic tally of $188 million, an international total of $487.1 million for a global tally of $675.1 million, from a $175 million budget. While the film performed well, it was down sharply from his last original film, 2010’sInception, which debuted with $62.7 million, en route to a domestic tally of $292.5 million, $532.9 million from foreign markets for a global tally of $825.5 million, from a $160 million budget.

While the story is said to be quite complex, yet simple at the same time, this epic drama based on true events from World War II is certainly more accessible that an exceedingly complex story likeInterstellar, which could be another reason whyDunkirkout-grossesInterstellar. The director is also trying to tap into a new audience demographic with the casting ofHarry Styles, the singer who became an international pop star with the group One Direction, who makes his feature film debut. The director recently compared the casting of Harry Styles to casting Heath Ledger as The Joker, a bold statement to be sure, although it will be interesting to see if any young fans of Harry Styles will check out a World War II movie likeDunkirkjust for a glimpse at Harry on the big screen. The cast also includesTom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, Kenneth Branagh, Mark Rylance, James D’arcy and Aneurin Barnard.

We’re predicting thatWar For the Planet of the Apeswill drop to the second spot with $28.7 million, followed byValerian and the City of a Thousand Planetswith $24.9 million,Spider-Man: Homecomingwith $23.7 million andGirls Triprounding out the top 5 with $20.4 million. The top 10 will likely be rounded out byDespicable Me 3($11.6 million),Baby Driver($6.4 million),The Big Sick($5.2 million),Wonder Woman($4.3 million) andWish Upon($2.2 million). Also opening in limited release is CFI Releasing’sThe Fencer, Parade Deck Films’The Gracefield Incident, Magnolia’s comedyLandline, Music Box Films' dramaThe Midwife, Vertical Entertainment’s family filmScales: Mermaids Are Realand Strand’s dramaThe Untamed.

Looking ahead to next weekend, only two movies arrive in wide release, Focus Features' action-thrillerAtomic Blondeand Sony’sThe Emjoi Movie. Also debuting in limited release is Indican’s documentary30 Years of Garbage: The Garbage Pail Kids Story, Vertical Entertainment’s dramaA Family Man, IFC’s dramaFrom the Land of the Moon, Paramount Vantage’s documentaryAn Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power, A24’s dramaMenashe, Sony’s comedyMubarakan, Magnolia’s comedyPerson To Person, Brainstorm Media’s dramaStrange Weatherand Well Go USA’s foreign filmWolf Warrior 2. Take a look at our box office projections for the weekend of July 21, and check back on Sunday for the top 10 estimates.