Quick Links
While theMarch 2, 2025,Academy Awardsseem so far away, as we have yet to hit the holidays or see what the new year brings, film fans have already felt the buzz for the upcoming award ceremony. Potential titles have emerged from the Cannes Film Festival, withAnoraandEmilia Pérezpositioning themselves as early front-runners. The prestigious Venice Film Festival also putThe BrutalistandConclaveat the front of many people’s minds as contenders.September 5andA Completed Unknownhave also been considered part of the mix.
Of course, the one title at the front of many people’s minds now isJon M. Chu’s adaptation ofWicked,which will likely be up for several categories, including Best Picture.This would be an impressive feat, with the last musical to take the award being 2003’sChicago(the only one in 50 years). Ridley Scott’sGladiator IIis another late entry that may appear in several categories.
It would certainly be great to seeWickedbreak some records. Horror fans also deserve some love; Coralie Fargeat’sThe Substancecertainly has a chance to pick up some awards and even potentially a nod for Best Picture (a pipe dream from a horror fan, perhaps), yet even in the other categories, it may see stiff competition. This has also been a great year for animated features, withThe Wild RobotandInside Out 2crafting heartwarming stories of self-discovery. We will examine and re-examine the 2025 Oscar contenders with our early predictions and updates as more information becomes available.
Updated on July 28, 2025:With the announcement of the Golden Globe nominees, we now have a better idea of how the Academy Awards may start to shape up. While a win at the Golden Globes does not guarantee an Oscar, since introducing the preferential ballot in 2009, seven Golden Globe winners for Best Picture (Drama or Musical/Comedy) have won the Academy Award for Best Picture.Emilia Pérezgained the most nominationsat the Golden Globes. Meanwhile,The Substance, earning five nominations, gives credence to the idea that the body horror masterpiece might have a surprise showing this year. We have also seen a few surprises and snubs at the Golden Globes, all of which have mixed up our picks.
Minor Update December 23rd, 2024: The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences hasannounced the shortlisted titlesin 10 categories. While this has no bearing on the categories we’re most focused on, our quick picks section below did see some changes now that we know the potential nominees.
Minor Update January 3rd, 2025:A new year means a new chance to look at the Oscar lineups now that the Golden Globes are days away. Once the ceremony passes and the winners are announced, it will drastically shake up the front-runners, especially as we are holding out for a few personal favorites to take home the win and push them into Oscar contention.
Here are some categories to keep a close eye on:
Major Update January 6th, 2025:The Golden Globes have now come and gone, and while there were no major surprises (bothThe BrutalistandEmilia Pérezcame up on top), there were enough changes to shake up our Oscar predictions and solidify others. A few of our early choices for Oscar wins, Zoe Saldaña for Supporting Actress and Demi Moore for Best Actress, were reflected in the Golden Globes. At the same time, certain films first hyped up, likeWicked Part One, may have been wishful thinking; consider it being caught up in the magic of the theatrical experience.
82nd Golden Globes: Every Winner Revealed
The biggest party in Hollywood brings the Award Season into 2025. Here are all the winners.
Minor update January 15th, 2025: The entire country and beyond has been captivated by the LA Wildfires and the tragic loss of life and property surrounding the catastrophe. While there have been victories in containing the fires, theNational Postreported a loss between $135 billion and $150 billion on January 11th. TheNew York Posthas reported ongoing challenges that make it difficult to pinpoint when the catastrophe will be entirely under control.
LA is a prominent entertainment industry hub, and the fires have significantly affected plans. Both the Academy Awards and the Grammys are likely to face delays.The nominations were initially set to be announced on August 10, 2025, but they werepushed back to the 19th and then the 23rd. Given the situation is still developing, it is not unreasonable to assume that these dates may be pushed back even further. It is also not unreasonable to assume that the event may see slight delays, as Sunday, July 10, 2025, is quickly approaching.
The ongoing disaster does not affect Oscar’s predictions; however, further updates will likely delay additional information. Those interested in helping those affected by the LA wildfires cancheck out this NBC LA piece for more details.
Major update January 23rd, 2025:The nominees have been announced! Now, we don’t have to speculate about who will or will not get a nod and can focus on who is nominated and who we think will take it home. Some of our early predictions stand firm, and we were also shocked by a few choices — a normal Academy Award reaction. Below, we have updated all categories.
Major updated February 4th, 2024: Ever since the nominees were announced, there has been controversy against one notable pick,Emilia Perez. While we had this movie championed to take a lot of awards before the announcement, this came in part because the movie seems perfectly tailored to what the Oscars would look for, particularly in a time of political uncertainty around LGBTQ+ issues under the current administration.
DespiteEmilia Perez’ssuccess at the Golden Globes, earning four wins, including Best Motion Picture—Musical or Comedy, fans and critics have begun to question the film’s validityin representing the Spanish and LGBTQ+ communities. Feeding into dislike of the film’s 13 Oscar nominations were the recent tweets that resurfaced fromKarla Sofía Gascón that had people accusing her of racist remarks. The film has even nowbeen outed for its use of AI, which had us markingThe Brutalistdown when that controversy came to light.
We will be watching to see how other award ceremonies, like the SAG and Critics' Choice Awards, treatEmilia Perezleading up to the Oscars. Still, the arguments against AI in film and the recent controversies have us giving the movie less favorable chances in most categories.
Minor Update: February 10th, 2025:We had two prestigious ceremonies over the weekend, the Critics' Choice Awards and theDirectors Guild Awards. These ceremonies did not mix up too much of our predictions, but there are some notable highlights. After the controversy aroundEmilia Pérezcame out, we were waiting to see how other awards acted in kind, and the movie saw no love at all. That is, except for Zoe Saldaña winning best supporting actress forEmilia Pérez, who we already highlighted in the last update as still deserving of an Oscar. Karla Sofía Gascón did not even appear at the award shows, backing up the idea that she is entirely out of contention.
With the previous shake-up, we had madeAnoraour top choice now to take the best feature and director. This is further solidified byAnorawinning Best Film at the Critics' Choice Awardsand Best Theatrical Film at the Directors Guild Awards. Other wins further cemented our top choices, including Kieran Culkin winning Best Supporting Actor forA Real PainandDemi Moore winning Best Actress forThe Substanceat the Critics' Choice Awards.
Minor Update February 17th, 2025: The final voting for the Oscars started on February 11th and is set to close on the 18th. This gives us one last look at how award shows are gauging certain films, notably with the BAFTA awards, which took place on the 16th. Two films that did well areConclaveandThe Brutalist, both of which were higher choices in our earliest predictions that fell out of favor due to AI controversy aroundThe Brutalist,and a few notable snubs forConclave(like Best Director) at the Academy Awards.
Conclavewon a BAFTA for Best Film, Outstanding British Film, Adapted Screenplay, and Editing.The Brutalistreceived a BAFTA for Leading Actor: Adrien Brody, Director: Brady Corbet, Original Score, and Cinematography. These wins don’t necessarily dethrone any of our top picks, but it has mixed up our rankings.
Minor Update February 24th, 2025: The Screen Actors Guild Awards have concluded, and regarding categories in film, the following winners were announced:
As voting for the Oscars has concluded, these winners don’t play as heavily into our overall predictions, mainly when many are already our top picks. Notably, Demi Moore, Keiran Culkin, and Zoe Saldaña are only further cemented as sure picks as they have been winning consistently. The only surprise here was Timothée Chalamet, but we feel that one SAG award is insufficient to indicate things will swing in his favor come the Academy Awards.Conclave’swin here also helped revitalize the renewed interest in the film’s notable BAFTA wins.
Timothée Chalamet Reveals Lofty Career Ambitions After Winning First SAG Award
“I’m really in the pursuit of greatness.”
Final Update February 28th, 2025: The Oscars are almost here, and I — along with many — am teeming with excitement.Set to air live on Sunday, March 2 (7 p.m. ET/4 PT) on ABC—with Hulu, YouTubeTV, AT&T TV, and FuboTV streaming options—we will finally get answers to the questions lingering over the build-up to award season: WillEmilia Pérezfalter under the weight of its many controversies? WillThe Substancebring some much-needed love to the horror genre?
As with every Academy Awards, the night will be full of surprises. Still, we looked at our picks before the big event, considering the grand scope of everything that has happened in the past months. We are pretty comfortable with where we landed, but below, we will highlight why we chose the way we did.
BEST PICTURE
Current Frontrunner: ‘Anora’
The Brutalist
Focus Features
I’m Still Here
Sony Pictures Releasing
Wicked (Part One)
A Complete Unknown
Searchlight Pictures
The Substance
Dune: Part Two
Warner Bros.
Nickel Boys
Amazon MGM Studios
Emilia Perez
The build-up and loveEmilia Pérezwas getting post-the Golden Globes, and the general early buzz made it a strong contender for us, withThe Brutalisthovering as a favorite; we were also swept up in the magic ofWickedand had it rated highly early on. However, Emilia Pérez was hit with controversy after controversy, making it seem like a somewhat toxic pick to hand the award to. At the same time,The Brutalistuse of AI hurts its chances as the use of the tech has become a hot talking point in the creative community.
PerhapsEmilia Pérez’snumber of issues overshadowedThe Brutalist, as it started to see some success at other award ceremonies, landing it in our number two spot after fluctuating up and down.Anorais a personal favorite and was consistently higher in our updates, but we did not think it stood a chance compared to others. However, the film fits that gap left byThe BrutalistandEmilia Pérezand began picking up various awards that we decided fit comfortably in the first place.
Current Frontrunner: Sean Baker for ‘Anora’
Sean Baker
Brady Corbet
Coralie Fargeat
James Mangold
Emilia Pérez
Jacques Audiard
Sean Baker’s landing in the top spot forAnorafollowed a similar trajectory to Best Film. Here, we are holding on to the hope that Coralie Fargeat can make history with the first Best Director win for a horror film. Yes, we know Silence of the Lambs won for Jonathan Demme, but the movie but that movie is better categorized as a thriller, in our opinion.
BEST ACTRESS
Current Frontrunner: Demi Moore for ‘The Substance’
Demi Moore
Fernanda Torres
Mikey Madison
Wicked: Part One
Cynthia Erivo
Karla Sofía Gascón
This was our top pick early on; Demi Moore deserves it.
7 Horror Movie References You May Have Missed in The Substance
Coralie Fargeat’s body horror film The Substance has caused quite a buzz. Fargeat sprinkled multiple movie references throughout, did you catch them?
BEST ACTOR
Current Frontrunner: Ralph Fiennes for ‘Conclave’
Ralph Fiennes
Colman Domingo
Adrien Brody
Timothée Chalamet
The Apprentice
Sebastian Stan
Conclavehas seen some success at other award ceremonies, which put Ralph Fiennes in our top spot in the last major update. If the film will get any recognition at the Oscars, this performance seems like the ideal choice. However, we had Colman Domingo as our top choice for most of our Oscar updates, and we would be thrilled to see him get the deserved recognition for his phenomenal performance inSing Sing.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Current Frontrunner: Zoe Saldaña for ‘Emilia Pérez’
Zoe Saldaña
Felicity Jones
Isabella Rossellini
Monica Barbaro
Ariana Grande
Zoe Saldaña has been our number one pick from day one, and her continued wins at various ceremonies have only further solidified our choice. Her continued success also gives some renewed faith in the award process, as her phenomenal performance continues to get recognized despite Emilia Pérez’s chances in every other category being pretty much dead in the water.
What ‘Wicked’ Does Better Than ‘Dune’
Both ‘Wicked’ and “Dune' split their story into two parts, but ‘Wicked’ tells a complete story while ‘Dune’ feels like set up.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Current Frontrunner: Kieran Culkin for ‘A Real Pain’
A Real Pain
Kieran Culkin
Guy Pearce
Yura Borisov
Jeremy Strong
Edward Norton
Guy Pearce was our top choice for a long time, feeling the actor was overdue for an Oscar. Yet, Kieran Culkin winning practically every award he could in the build-up to the Academy Awards makes him an easy choice here.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Current Frontrunner: ‘Flow’
Gints Zilbalodis
The Wild Robot
Chris Sanders
Memoir of a Snail
Adam Elliot
Inside Out 2
Kelsey Mann
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Merlin Crossingham Nick Park
The best Animated Feature has to go toFloworThe Wild Robot; I won’t accept anything less. Joking aside, this is my favorite category almost every year, and bothThe Wild RobotandFlowwere utterly phenomenal;Memoir of a Snailin another year would also have been an easy top pick.Flowis innovative and a unique narrative experience; for this reason, we give it that slight edge.
Quick Takes
We look closer at some of the other anticipated categories and our prediction for who will emerge as the frontrunner.
