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November 2024 is set to be a big month forDwayne “The Rock” Johnson, but not in the way that he likely expected. Within the span of two weeks,Dwayne Johnson will be the star of two feature films aimed at the holiday crowd. The first is the action-comedy Christmas movieRed One, where Johnson plays the head of North Pole security, who teams up with a hacker, played by Chris Evans, to save a kidnapped Santa Claus. The second isMoana 2, where Johnson will reprise his role as the demi-god Maui from the 2016 hit filmMoana.
Despite these two films both featuring Dwayne Johnson, one of the world’s biggest movie stars, both figuratively in terms of box office and literally in terms of sheer size, they could not be further apart in terms of audience interest.Red Oneis looking to be a box office flop and one of the biggest in Johnson’s career.Moana 2, on the other hand, is looking like it will be one of the biggest movies of 2024, likely standing in the worldwide top 5 alongside other Disney titles likeInside Out 2andDeadpool & Wolverine. Here is whyRed OneandMoana 2are opening so close together, howRed Onewill seemingly bomb at the box office, and howMoana 2will temper the disappointment while not entirely saving Dwayne Johnson’s brand.
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Both Red One and Moana 2 Were Not Supposed to Release This Close Together
What is strange about this particular circumstance is thatRed OneandMoana 2were not supposed to come out so close together. Not only wasRed Onesupposed to be released in 2023, but neither it norMoana 2was even supposed to be a theatrically released movie.Red Onebegan wrapped filming back in 2022 and was originally set for release on June 22, 2025, and debut on Prime Video just in time for Christmas. However, in December 2023, the decision was made todelay the filmuntil November 2024 andgive the movie a theatrical release date.
Moana 2, on the other hand, was not originally planned as a feature film. Disney announced plans for aMoanacontinuation during their Disney Investor Day 2020, but the plan was originally a Disney+ streaming series. Following Bob Iger’s return to Disney and wanting to shift back to theatrical release and then a terrible 2023, which included multiple box office flops, including Disney Animation’sWish, the studio was desperate for a surefire hit. WithMoanabeing thebest-performing film on Disney+, aMoanasequel seemed like a box office sure thing. Bob Iger officially announcedMoana2 on August 11, 2025, much to the shock of many. The animated series wasreformatted and rewrittento now be a theatrically released movie set for release on June 16, 2025, just 12 days after Amazon MGM had datedRed One.
In 2023, Dwayne Johnson would have figured thatRed Onewould be released that year and thatMoanawould be a Disney+ series. On the surface, this would be good for him, as they are the only two movies he has set for release in 2024. He otherwise would not have a new film this year.YetRed Onelooks to be one of the year’s biggest flops, whileMoana 2could be one of the year’s highest-grossing movies.Moana 2has the benefit of audience goodwill thanks to its beloved predecessor.Red Onehas had to overcome plenty of negative pre-release buzz as the trailers were criticized by many for looking like a “fake movie”, often a criticism for films that look like the joke trailers you would see in films likeTropic ThunderorThe Holiday.
Red One Will Find Dwayne Johnson in the Red
Red Onemade $3.7 million in preview screenings and is estimated to have an opening weekend between $25 to $40 million. That is terrible for a movie whosebudget reportedly is $250 million. $50 million allegedly was due to delays on the film caused by Dwayne Johnson being seven to eight hours late to set and sometimes not showing up, though Garcia denied that point. While Johnson denied being seven to eight hours late, calling it “ridiculous,” headmitted to being late to set. He also did admit to a report that said he peed in water bottles on set, which certainly isn’t a good thing to do or admit.Red One’s road to the big screen can be seen as a snapshot of many major Hollywood trends coming together and how the long development of a film can be greenlit in one environment and be released in a drastically different one.
Red Onewas officially announced as being developed for Prime Video in June 2021, as COVID-19 vaccines had begun their rollout. There was still plenty of uncertainty on the viability of theatrical distribution, and many studios were looking at streaming as the new home for movies. When Amazon Prime won the bidding war,the plan was forRed Oneto start a planned holiday universe of projectsthat could be spun off into multiple films and television series, trying to replicate the next Marvel Cinematic Universe. This explains whyRed Onefeatures Lucy Liu as Zoe Harlow, the head of Mythological Oversight and Restoration Authority (M.O.R.A.), a military organization that oversees and protects a secret peace treaty between mythological creatures and humans that likely was intended to be their version of S.H.I.E.L.D in future projects.
Red Onewas an original story from Hiram Garcia, the brother of Dwayne Johnson’s ex-wife and Seven Bucks Production co-founder Dany Garcia. Hiram Garcia was promoted to president of productions at Seven Bucks Productions in 2017. They then brought on Chris Morgan, the writer of sevenFast & Furiousmovies, including Dwayne Johnson’s spin-offHobbs & Shaw.Jake Kasdan, who previously worked with Johnson on bothJumanji: Welcome to the JungleandJumanji: The Next Level, directedRed One.
Dwayne Johnson Is Now a Businessman First and an Actor Second
As much as Dwayne Johnson might believe every word he’s paid to utter, it’s getting harder to differentiate the pitchman from the human being.
From top to bottom,Red Onewas built as a traditional Dwayne Johnson star vehiclewith a four-quadrant appeal that looked to sell audiences on a high concept and his star power. Yet Johnson himself is not the box office sure thing he might have been back in the early 2010s when he helped reviveFast & FuriousandG.I. Joe. Following the disappointingbox office ofBlack Adamand DC’sLeague of Super-Pets,Red Onecan’t help but feel like those or every other Dwayne Johnson-led action movie within the past 10 years.
Red One, both in name and tone, feels very similar to Netflix’s 2021 Dwayne Johnson-ledRed Notice, as both movies were designed as big-budget movies that audiences could watch at home while reminding the viewer of other similar films they like. WhereasRed Noticewas released on Netflix,Red Onedecided to be moved up to a theatrical release, likely as a way to recoup its investment for how much money was spent on it as streamers like Netflix and Prime Video have realized they can’t spend these exorbitant budgets on movies that go straight to streaming, butRed Onewas not designed for theaters.
Red Onewas greenlit as a multi-media franchise for a streaming service in the aftermath of COVID-19, filmed as theaters were starting to see a comeback, delayed a whole year while the lead actor’s star power was diminishing, and is now being released in theaters. It is trying toconvince audiences to go to a theaterto see a movie designed to be watched at home, likely half-paid attention to while scrolling on your phone, and nobody is buying it. In the end, it will eventually find itself on Prime Video, where it will likely do big numbers because it is easier for someone to turn this movie on at home than to spend hard-earned money to buy a ticket.
And Here Comes Moana With the Steel Chair
Dwayne Johnson is about to find that his biggest box office opponent will be himself, asMoana 2is looking to be one of the biggest movies of the holiday season. WhileRed Onewill certainly be taken down the week beforeMoana 2with the double hitter ofWickedandGladiatorII, it will beMoana 2that will truly give the finishing blow.Moana 2is trackingbetween a $105 to $115 million five-day opening over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. That would place it as the biggest opening for a movie to open on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, breaking the record previously held byFrozen. ToppingFrozennumbers is no easy task.
There is a chance international markets can help carryRed One; domestically, it will be lucky to gross over $100 million.Moana 2will likely outgrossRed One’s entire box office total before its opening weekend is over.Moana 2’s box office would normally draw attention away from the underperformance ofRed One, similar to in 1999 when director John McTeiernan was able to slightly shake off the disastrous box office ofThe 13th Warriorbecause his other film,The Thomas Crown Affair, had opened three weeks prior and was a box office hit.
However,Moana 2’s success won’t be attributed to Dwayne Johnson; instead, it is the power of the Disney brand and the first film. However,Red One’s failure will rest squarely on his shoulders. While Dwayne Johnson will be celebrating the victory ofMoana 2, the seeming box office failure ofRed Onewill undoubtedly put a damper on that.
Why Disney Is Remaking Moana
Disney’s announcement of a live-action remake of Moana has been controversial. Why is the studio remaking a movie that is less than ten years old?
These two worlds will collide again in 2026 as Dwayne Johnson is set to play Maui in thelive-action remake ofMoana. The live-actionMoanawill be a co-production between Seven Buck Productions and Disney. News of the live-action remake broke in April 2023 and felt like a desperate move on Johnson’s part to recover from the high-profile disappointment ofBlack Adamand him no longer having a big franchise to rely on. While audiences love the animatedMoana, will they turn out for a remake of a movie that will only be 10 years old and whose animated sequel just came out two years prior?
Similar toRed One,the decision to produce a live-actionMoanamovie seems made to cash in on a trendthat is already out the door, and by the time it comes out, audiences will have moved on. Thelive-action remake of Disney animated moviesis already beginning to fall out of favor with many audiences. Maybe withRed One’s box office and critical performance, Johnson will take a good long look at the creative choices that led to that movie and reevaluate his plans.Red Oneis now in theaters.Moana 2will release in theaters on November 27.
