Can Tomb Raider Take Down Black Panther at the Box Office?

After four weeks of box office domination, the incredible run of Marvel’sBlack Panthermay finally be coming to an end, with four new movies hitting theaters in wide release this coming weekend. While many thought thatA Wrinkle In Timewould be the movie to take downBlack Panther, that YA adventure drastically underperformed, paving the way for Marvel’s fourth win last weekend with $40.8 million. But with the superhero adventure is now going up against Warner Bros.‘Tomb Raider, 20th Century Fox’sLove, Simon, Roadside Attractions’I Can Only Imagineand Focus Features'7 Days in Entebbe. We’re predicting that T’challa and Company’s hot streak is at its end, withTomb Raidertaking the top spot with an projected $28.3 million.

While we’re expectingBlack Pantherto drop to second place at this weekend’sBox Office, it will still likely be a close race at the top, sinceBlack Panther’s decreases from weekend to weekend have actually become even more minimal. The movie dropped a respectable 44.7% from its massive debut in itssecond weekend, while dropping 40.6% in its third weekend and just 38.4% last weekend. We’re projecting a modest drop of 40%, which would bring its fifth weekend tally to $24.6 million, so ifBlack Pantheroverperforms orTomb Raiderunderperforms, neither of which would be surprising at this point, it could beBlack Pantheron top for an amazing fifth weekend in a row.

Of the fournew releasesthis weekend,Tomb Raiderhas a massive theater count advantage, opening in an estimated 3,600 theaters, whileLove, Simonarrives in 2,400 theaters and7 Days in Entebbedebuts in roughly 800 theaters, although there was no theater estimate posted forI Can Only Imagine. The one advantageLove, Simondoes seem to have is with the critics, posting an impressive 88% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, while critics seem mixed onTomb Raiderat the moment with a 50% rating, while7 Days in Entebbehas a disastrous 17% rating.I Can Only Imaginedoesn’t have enough reviews posted at this time to qualify for aTomatoMeter scorequite yet.

We’re projecting that the top 5 will be rounded out byLove, Simonin third place with $18.6 million, after the movie earned a respectable $800K this past weekend in sneak preview screenings, followed byA Wrinkle In Timein fourth place with $15.4 million andI Can Only Imaginewith $7.2 million. The top 10 will likely be rounded out byStrangers: Prey at Night($5.1 million),Red Sparrow($4.2 million),Game Night($3.8 million),Peter Rabbit($3.2 million) andDeath Wish($2.9 million). While it’s possible that7 Days in Entebbecould crack the top 10, with the movie debuting in just 800 theaters, it seems unlikely.

Also debuting in limited release this weekend is Screen Media Films’Josie, The Orchard’sFlower, IFC’sFurlough, Indican’sThe Happys, Good Deed’sJourney’s Endand Vertical Entertainment’sTilt. Looking ahead to next weekend, five newcomers will hit theaters in wide release, with Universal’sPacific Rim Uprising, Open Road Films’Midnight Sun, Paramount’sSherlock Gnomes, Bleecker Street’sUnsaneand Sony’sPaul, Apostle of Christ. Take a look at our top 10 projections for the weekend of March 16, and check back on Sunday for the top 10 estimates, courtesy ofBox Office Mojo.