Can Arrival Beat Doctor Strange at the Box Office?

Much to no one’s surprise, Marvel debuted yet anotherbox office hitwith their new Phase 3 adventureDoctor Strange, which took in just over $85 million last weekend, slightly ahead of the $84.9 million estimates on Sunday. This weekend, three new releases attempt to knock the Sorcerer Supreme off the top spot, with Paramount’sArrival, Universal’sAlmost Christmasand EuropaCorp’sShut Inarriving in wide release. Despite this trio of new competitors, we’re predicting thatDoctor Strangeshould have no problem hanging on to the top spot with $43.4 million.

Doctor Strangedebuted in 3,882 theaters last weekend, pulling in an impressive $21,911 per-screen average. While it remains to be seen if that theater count will be altered this weekend, as it stands now, thissuperhero adventurewill likely be playing in roughly more than 1,600 theaters than its new competitors this weekend.Box Office Mojoreports thatAlmost ChristmasandArrivalwill both debut in roughly 2,200 theaters, whileShut Inis slated to open in 1,850 theaters.

As of now,Arrivalis the only movie of the new releases with enough reviews for a Rotten Tomatoes listing, posting an astonishing 100% with 69 total reviews. Given all of this critical acclaim, it’s possible thatArrivalcould actually challengeDoctor Strangewith an impressive performance in itsopening weekend. If it were to match the predicted $43.5 million take ofDoctor Strange, it would need to earn at least a $19,727 per-screen average, based on the estimated 2,200 theater count. Still, while we think it will be a close race,Arrivalwill open in second place with $41.6 million.

When mysterious spacecraft touch down across the globe, an elite team - lead by expert linguist Louise Banks (Amy Adams) - are brought together to investigate. As mankind teeters on the verge of global war, Banks and the team race against time for answers - and to find them, she will take a chance that could threaten her life, and quite possibly humanity.Jeremy Rennerleads a supporting cast which also includesMichael Stuhlbarg,Forest WhitakerandTzi Ma, withDenis Villeneuve(Prisoners,Sicario) directing from a script byEric Heisserer(Lights Out).

A new comedy from writer/directorDavid E. Talbert(Baggage Claim) and producerWill Packer(Ride Along,Think Like a Manseries,This Christmas),Almost Christmastells the festive story of a beloved patriarch who asks his family for one gift this holiday season: to get along. If they can honor that wish and spend five days under the same roof without killing one another, it will be a Christmas miracle. The ensemble cast includesGabrielle Union,Danny Glover,Nicole Ari Parker,Jessie Usher,Omar Epps,Kimberly Elise,Romany MalcoandMo’nique.

Shut Inis a heart-pounding thriller starringNaomi Wattsas a widowed child psychologist who lives an isolated existence in rural New England. When a young boy Mary (Watts) is treating goes missing, and is presumed dead, she becomes convinced that his ghost is haunting her and her bedridden son. The cast also includesRoomstarJacob Tremblay,Oliver PlattandCharlie Heaton. Rounding out the top 5 will beTrolls$30.2 million,Almost Christmas($14.5 million) andShut In($8.9 million).

Rounding out the top 10 will beHacksaw Ridge($7.2 million),Boo! A Madea Halloween($4.7 million),Inferno($3.1 million),The Accountant($2.8 million) andJack Reacher: Never Go Back($2.1 million). Also opening in limited release this weekend is Sony’sBilly Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, Sony Pictures Classics’Elle, Argot Pictures’The Anthropologist, Indican’sThe Fiance, Strand’sKiki, Love to Love, Oscilloscope Pictures’The Love Witchand Music Box Films’Seasons.Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walkis set to expand nationwide on November 18.

Looking ahead to next weekend, Warner Bros. will bring itsHarry Potterfranchise back to theaters withFantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, which will go up against Open Road Films' boxing dramaBleed For Thisand STX Entertainment’sThe Edge of Seventeen. Also opening in limited release is Magnolia’s horror-thrillerThe Eyes of My Mother, Well Go USA’s dramatic comedyI Am Not Madame Bovary, Roadside Attractions' dramaManchester by the Sea, Focus Features' thrillerNocturnal Animals, Magnolia’s action movieOfficer Downe, Cleopatra Films' dramatic comedyA Street Cat Named Boband High Top Releasing’s action movieThe Take. Check back on Sunday for the box office estimates, but until then, here’s our projections for the top 10 during the November 11 weekend.